Climatic Research Unit : Papers

Potential bias in 'updating' tree-ring chronologies using regional curve standardisation:
Re-processing 1500 years of Torneträsk density and ring-width data

Thomas M Melvin, Håkan Grudd and Keith R Briffa
(Holocene 2012)

The online version of this article can be found at: http://hol.sagepub.com/content/early/2012/10/26/0959683612460791

Abstract

We describe the analysis of existing and new maximum-latewood-density (MXD) and tree-ring width (TRW) data from the Torneträsk region of northern Sweden and the construction of 1500 year chronologies. Some previous work found that MXD and TRW chronologies from Torneträsk were inconsistent over the most recent 200 years, even though they both reflect predominantly summer temperature influences on tree growth. We show that this was partly a result of systematic bias in MXD data measurements and partly a result of inhomogeneous sample selection from living trees (modern sample bias). We use refinements of the simple Regional Curve Standardisation (RCS) method of chronology construction to identify and mitigate these biases. The new MXD and TRW chronologies now present a largely consistent picture of long-timescale changes in past summer temperature in this region over their full length, indicating similar levels of summer warmth in the medieval period (MWP, c. ad 900-1100) and the latter half of the 20th century. Future work involving the updating of MXD chronologies using differently sourced measurements may require similar analysis and appropriate adjustment to that described here to make the data suitable for the production of un-biased RCS chronologies. The use of 'growth-rate' based multiple RCS curves is recommended to identify and mitigate the problem of 'modern sample bias'.

Files

Melvin_Supp.pdf - Supplementary material including figures S1 to s20

Reconstructions - The primary reconstructions are in file "Fig5.col" in TornFigs.zip

TornFigs.zip - for each figure in the main document (Figures 1 to 5) and supplementary material (Figures S1 to S20): '.eps' graphic and .col' plotting data in column format

TornReps.zip - contains some reports:
UpdateG08MXD.prn Update report for the G08 data
UpdateG11MXD.prn Update report for the G11 data
UpdateG12MXD.prn Update report for the G12 data
UpdateG1112MXD.prn Update report for the combined G11 and G12 data
G08oS88.prn Rescaling G08 old data v S88 data
G08yS88A.prn Rescaling G08 young data v G08 old and S88
G12oS88.prn Rescaling G12 old data v S88 data
G12yS88A.prn Rescaling G12 young data v G12 old and S88 data
Journal Report of regression parameters
Rawstats Some statistics of measurement data files

TornData.zip - Measurement data and associated pith offset files.

TornData2.zip - More measurement data, the climate data used, and some previous published Tornetrask chronologies.

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