Avoiding overconfidence in climate projections

Adapting to the effects of man-made climate change in this century requires a careful assessment of the uncertainties inherent in model projections of any related impacts. In a paper out in Nature today http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v511/n7507/full/nature13523.html a group of authors including one from CRU suggest that projections of when the signal of climate change will emerge from the background noise of climate variability- the ‘time of emergence’- that were made in a paper last year in Nature are overconfident; in other words their projections do not take account of the uncertainties inherent in climate projections properly. Nature have also commissioned a News and Views piece on the article http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v511/n7507/full/511038a.html